2023 Presidential Elections in Argentina

Miguel Haro Ruiz | November 26, 2023

On November 19, far-right Javier Milei prevailed over opponent Sergio Massa in the runoff to Argentina’s presidential election. Milei ran an anti-establishment campaign that vowed to shut down Argentina’s central bank and overhaul fiscal rules to deal with the country’s soaring inflation and reduce its sovereign debt. Massa, who served as minister of economy for the outgoing government, represented the “political caste” that Milei had widely blamed for Argentina’s economic woes.

This is how the second round played out in each of Argentina’s departments:

The 2023 election tore Argentinians between Massa's continuity of the policies that brought the country into an endless crisis, and Milei’s new formula, which would slash social spending and leave marginalised groups unattended.

While there is no single archetype of Milei’s supporter, we can analyze the socioeconomic composition of Argentina’s departments to understand how he gathered a majority of the votes.

The age factor

The ageing index compares the number of people aged 65 and older for every 100 people under 14. If a particular community scores over 100, it means their population is getting older, whereas a number under 100 indicates they are getting younger.

Older communities lifted Milei

1 bubble = 1 department

Milei won in all 16 departments where the population is getting older. Among the departments in which the population is getting younger, which make up the vast majority in Argentina, we also observe that a higher presence of people over 65 is associated with more support for Milei.

The role of information

A lot of communities in Argentina remain unplugged to the internet. While these are mostly small rural settlements, not having access to the internet drastically limits their sources of information to radio, TV and print media. While Milei’s campaign was widely covered by traditional media, his strategy revolved around social media such as Instagram, where he has more than 4.6M followers (versus 526K from his opponent Massa).

More internet, more Milei

1 bubble = 1 department

There is a strong relationship among departments in Argentina, such that fewer people having internet at home implies less support for Milei. In fact, Milei lost in 71 of the 96 departments where less than half of the population has internet at home.

The issue of private property

It may be easy to believe that Milei’s neoliberal agenda is mostly supported by the wealthy, who will not feel the consequences of the cuts on social spending. However, the radical economic reforms that Milei proposed throughout his campaign did not sit well with all the wealthy. It is no coincidence that on election night, Milei tried to calm some of them stating “We will respect property rights strictly” in an interview with conservative radio host Eduardo Feinmann.

Homeowners' skepticism towards Milei

1 bubble = 1 department

When looking at the different departments, support for Milei quickly goes down as the share of homeowners increases; While he won in all 40 departments where homeownership is below 60%, he lost in 119 out of the 174 with at least 75% of homeowners.

President-elect Milei will be sworn in on December 10, and he is expected to name his cabinet members in the coming weeks.